Are the Polls Wrong Again?
原文地址：Are the Pools Wrong Again?
Are Democrats again about to be disappointed by overly optimistic polling?
个人觉得是的。从来不看好poll或者survey。
One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey.
- skeptical of mainstream institutions: 对主流机构持怀疑态度
This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds.
这种可能性让人有理由怀疑民主党在中期选举中的表现是否真的像传统观点那样好。
- conventional wisdom, 传统观点
Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
- narrowly, 微弱地
The unavoidable reality is that polling is both an art and a science, requiring hard judgments about which kinds of people are more or less likely to respond to a survey and more or less likely to vote in the fall. There are still some big mysteries about the polls’ recent tendency to underestimate Republican support.
As a result, this year’s election may feel less like a referendum on the current president and more like a choice between two parties.
referendum: 公投
The arguments are often pretty plausible. After all, every cycle is different. There’s almost always something unprecedented about a given election year. There’s always a way to spin up a rationale for why old rules won’t apply.
- plausible: 似是而非的
- unprecedented: 史无前例的
- spin up a rationale: 找到理由